Modeling malaria commodity consumption: diagnostics and drugs

MAP Commodity Consumption Dashboard

Effective malaria case management necessitates that suspected malaria cases receive a confirmatory diagnostic test. Despite large-scale roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests across sub-Saharan Africa, evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of suspected malaria cases do not receive a confirmatory diagnostic test. This potentially leads to inappropriate clinical management, wastage of antimalarial drugs, and inaccuracy in routine case records. If rapid diagnostic testing rates increase, it will be important to understand rapid diagnostic test and antimalarial drug commodity consumption– both under the current status quo and how consumption would change under scenarios of expanded diagnostic use.

The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) is working with national malaria programs and PMI in Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique, and Guinea to support improved country-level insight into malaria diagnostic and drug commodity requirements under a wide range of potential scenarios. This modeling activity aims to address the lack of information on current commodity consumption and how these may be affected under future scenarios of changing care seeking, diagnostic access, and prescription practices. Working closely with country partners, MAP will produce bespoke, country-specific estimates and visualizations of (i) current malaria commodity consumption (RDT, ACT) within their health systems reflecting current levels of febrile illness, care seeking, diagnostic use and drug prescription practices; and (ii) how commodity consumption would differ under different scenarios, including expanded diagnostic testing and changing compliance to test results. The activity launched in June 2022 and the modeling outputs will be available in January 2023.

Research question: How many RDTs and ACTs are needed to effectively support case management program improvements aimed at increasing appropriate management of people with fever?

Study team: MAP

Timeline: June 2022 – April 2023