Modeling malaria commodity needs: diagnostics and drugs

Effective malaria case management necessitates that suspected malaria cases receive a confirmatory diagnostic test. Despite large-scale roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests across sub-Saharan Africa, evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of suspected malaria cases do not receive a confirmatory diagnostic test. This potentially leads to inappropriate clinical management, wastage of antimalarial drugs, and inaccuracy in routine case records. If rapid diagnostic testing rates increase, it will be important to understand rapid diagnostic test and antimalarial drug commodity needs – both under the current status quo and how the need would change under scenarios of expanded diagnostic use.

The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) is working with national malaria programs and PMI in Uganda, Zambia, Mozambique, and Guinea to support improved country-level insight into malaria diagnostic and drug commodity requirements under a wide range of potential scenarios. This modeling activity aims to address the lack of information on current commodity needs and how these may be affected under future scenarios of changing care seeking, diagnostic access, and prescription practices. Working closely with country partners, MAP will produce bespoke, country-specific estimates and visualizations of (i) current malaria commodity needs (RDT, ACT) within their health systems reflecting current levels of febrile illness, care seeking, diagnostic use and drug prescription practices; and (ii) how these commodity needs would differ under different scenarios, including expanded diagnostic testing and changing compliance to test results. The activity launched in June 2022 and the modeling outputs will be available in January 2023.

Research question:  How many RDTs and ACTs would be needed to ensure testing of all febrile individuals seeking care?

Study team: MAP

Timeline: June 2022 – January 2023